According to the Business News Service chemical commodity price monitoring data show that after the National Day, TDI prices rose from 20075 yuan / ton after the festival to 27166.67 on October 18, rising by more than 35% in a month. In addition, from 15,000 yuan / ton in early August to date, the current round of TDI up cycle has been close to 80 days, the rate of increase is a smashing 80%, refreshing a new high of nearly four years.
The reason for this is mainly in the context of global energy shortage, European chemicals production capacity is more restricted, and the economic benefits of TDI production is more sensitive to changes in energy costs. High natural gas prices forced European production shutdowns (more than 1 year dimension), combined with most TDI plant maintenance in October (1 month dimension), made TDI short-term supply tightness reach a record high.
At the beginning of August, Costron announced a force majeure at its 300,000 tpy TDI plant in Germany due to a chlorine leak, and supply is not expected to resume until after November 30. Before that, BASF's 300,000 t/a TDI capacity in Ludwigshafen, Germany was stopped due to force majeure in February this year, and there is still no news of restart.
On September 26, an explosion occurred at the location of "Nord Stream" gas pipeline, and the market generally expects that the problem of gas supply in Europe will not be relieved in the short term, which will make it more difficult to restart the TDI plant in Europe and the supply gap may exist for a long time.
TDI belongs to the upstream of polyurethane industry chain, the main application areas are sponge and its products, the terminal products are sofa, mattress, car seats, etc. The domestic demand is strong and the external demand is growing at a high speed, while the global TDI production capacity has been growing slowly in recent years. On the other hand, due to the soaring cost of energy and raw materials in Europe, the local TDI factory low start-up rate, tight goods and prices, but also make the market price rapidly soaring high, and in the current situation, next year, the European TDI production capacity restart is difficult, is expected to market TDI prices still have room to rise.
At present, the winter situation in Europe is becoming more and more severe. In everyone for the energy problem when the emergence of new variant strains is to make the situation worse, coupled with the impact of energy problems, Europe and began to cut production overhaul, a number of chemical raw materials supply began to be tight, and in addition to TDI prices rose sharply, other chemical raw materials also set off a "tide of price increases"!
MDI: Europe than the domestic high 3000 yuan / ton, Wanhua, Dow up
Europe MDI accounts for 27% of global production capacity, in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Europe and the United States natural gas supply tensions, significantly raised the production costs of MDI. Recently, MDI in Europe is about RMB 3,000 per ton higher than MDI in China.
With the requirement of winter heating, part of the demand for MDI will be released in October; on the foreign side, the recent overseas energy crisis problem is still more prominent, which is favorable to MDI price. Dow Europe or since September 1 on the European market MDI, polyether and combination of products to increase prices, the rate of increase of 200 euros / ton (about RMB 1368 yuan yuan / ton). Wanhua Chemical has increased polymeric MDI by 2,300 yuan/ton and pure MDI by 2,000 yuan/ton in China since October.
Propylene oxide: start-up rate as low as 60%, has risen over RMB4,000/ton in the second half of the year
European propylene oxide production capacity accounts for 25% of the world, and several plants in Europe have announced production cuts. At the same time, the start-up rate of domestic propylene oxide has also declined and has reached 65.83%, which is the low point in recent years and about 20% lower than the normalized start-up rate. Many large enterprises started to stop for maintenance, which reduced product supply.
Many large chemical enterprises have propylene oxide supporting downstream, and the products are mostly for self-use and not much for export. Therefore, the circulation of spot in the market is tight, and the product price has been recovering significantly since September. Epichlorohydrin prices rose from 8,000 yuan / ton in early August to about 10,260 yuan / ton, an increase of nearly 30%, the cumulative increase of more than 4,000 yuan / ton in the second half of the year.
Titanium dioxide: the total load down to 20%, high-end products up 2,000 yuan / ton
European titanium dioxide production capacity accounted for about 18% of the world, many European titanium dioxide enterprises to stop production and reduce production, production capacity has been reduced to 20% of the total load, the supply is more nervous. The impact of the European energy crisis, the impact on the domestic titanium dioxide industry will appear in the fourth quarter, including product price increases and shortages.
The domestic situation, high-end chloride titanium dioxide prices are also rising. CITIC Titanium and Tianyuan shares have sent letters announcing that the domestic price of chlorinated products increased by 800-2000 yuan / ton, foreign prices increased by about 100-150 U.S. dollars / ton. Some companies have begun to stop production to clear inventory, the price decline in space is very limited, the increase is expected to increase.
On October 10, Wanhua Chemical announced that its 300,000 tons/year TDI plant in Yantai will be shut down on October 11 for maintenance, which is expected to last about 45 days.
Meanwhile, due to the epidemic in Xinjiang region, the logistics of Xinjiang Juli TDI is slow and the delivery period is greatly extended.
In addition, Gansu Yinguang's 150,000 tons/year TDI plant, which is scheduled to restart at the end of November, will be affected by the epidemic in Baiyin, Gansu, and the restart time may be extended.
And this is only the supply-side tightening news that has happened, there are a number of on the way.
South Korea Hanwha 150,000 tons / year TDI plant will be overhauled on October 24.
BASF Korea's 200,000 t/a TDI plant will be overhauled at the end of October.
Shanghai Costron's 310,000 t/a TDI plant is expected to be overhauled in November.
Acrylic acid: upstream raw material price increases, products generally rose 200-300 yuan / ton
European acrylic acid production capacity accounted for 16% of the world, the escalation of international geopolitical conflicts, resulting in high crude oil, raw material propylene prices rose, the cost side support enhanced. Overlapping with the post-holiday users are returning to the market, multiple factors, the acrylic acid market prices rose steadily.
The market price of acrylic acid in East China ranged from 7900-8100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the end of September. Shanghai Huayi, Yangba Petrochemical, Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical acrylic acid and ester factory prices increased by 200-300 yuan / ton. After the festival, the raw material propylene market prices rose, the cost side support enhanced, some device load restrictions, coupled with the downstream buy to follow up more positive, acrylic acid market center of gravity up.
